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Archive for the ‘Stock Investing’ Category

Guest post by Contributing Editor, Robert P. Seawright, Chief Investment and Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities.

Value has persistently outperformed over the long-term.  Why is that?

In the most general terms, growth stocks are those with growing positive attributes – like price, sales, earnings, profits, and return on equity.  Value stocks, on the other hand, are stocks that are underpriced when compared to some measure of their relative value – like price to earnings, price to book, and dividend yield. Thus growth stocks trade at higher prices relative to various fundamental measures of their value because (at least in theory) the market is pricing in the potential for future earnings growth. Over relatively long periods of time, each of these investing classes can and do outperform the other.  For example, growth investing dominated the 1990s while value investing has outperformed since. But value wins over the long haul. (more…)

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Every year when the forecasts for the hurricane season are issued, there have been a spate of articles on implications for investors.  This year was no exception.  USA Today reported that U.S. natural gas prices jumped 3% on the basis of a forecast for an active hurricane season in 2013.  It is also common to read that companies are attributing poor earnings to unusual weather. (more…)

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April is financial literacy month.  I believe that lack of financial knowledge is one of the most critical problems that our country faces. (more…)

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The financial media loves a catch phrase and, with the apparent emotional hook of the ‘fiscal cliff’ diminished, we needed a new one.  The current best candidate is the so-called ‘Great Rotation.’  The idea here is that investors, finally and completely fed up with the dismal returns from bonds, are going to move heavily back into equities.  This is the ‘Great Rotation.’  When I Google the term, there are 820,000 search results.  Not bad for a phrase that was invented in October 2012 (in a research note from Bank of America, apparently).  (more…)

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I have been struggling to understand a problem that I am going to refer to as the ‘yield paradox.’  Yields for individual asset classes look low.  The 10-year Treasury bond is yielding about 1.9%, and 30-year Treasury bonds are yielding a similarly paltry 3%.  The S&P 500 is yielding 2.1%, which is very low by comparison to historical levels.  Investment-grade corporate bond indexes are yielding less than 4% (see LQD, for example, at 3.8%).  Given that the official rate of inflation for 2012 was 1.7%, these yields mean that investors are getting very little yield net of inflation.  The very low yields on bonds and on stock indexes is a direct result of the Fed’s actions in holding interest rates at historical lows via Quantitative Easing.  We have not yet gotten to the paradox. (more…)

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There is increasing evidence of big flows of money into equities and leaving bonds.  This is being seen at all levels in the market, including among institutional investors such as pension plans.  The Wall Street Journal just published an article discussing this shift called Are Mom and Pop Heading for Wall Street?   Mutual fund flows suggest that investors are finally returning to equities, after selling in droves over the past several years.  This article summarizes the issue:

From April 2009 through now, mutual-fund investors sold a quarter trillion dollars in stock funds, according to recent data from the Investment Company Institute.

Ironically, that selloff coincided with a period of stellar performance in stocks—when the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 60%. (more…)

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The price of a share of Apple (AAPL) is almost 30% below the high that it set back in September 2012—about five months ago.  Even before its peak, the price of Apple shares had already made it the most valuable company in history.  In those heady times, Apple shares reached $702.  Today, they are at $503.  Even today, however, Apple remains the largest single holding in the S&P 500 at about 3.6% of the total index.  It is mind boggling to consider that the market value of the most valuable public firm in history could decline by 30% in five months, without some sort of catastrophic event.  But this is the situation and there are some lessons to be drawn. (more…)

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Guest post by Contributing Editor, John Graves.

Editor’s Note:  John Graves has been an independent financial advisor for 26 years. He is one of the two owners of The Renaissance Group, a Registered Investment Advisor based in Ventura, CA.  John’s book, The 7% Solution: You Can Afford  a Comfortable Retirement, was published in 2012.  When I read this book, I was impressed with John’s approach and thinking and I recommend it as a good read.  I contacted John and asked if he would consider contributing to this blog.  After we bounced around some possible topics, he sent me the following piece that describes his process for designing income plans for retirees.  (more…)

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One of the most important questions for investors and advisors is identifying a set of asset classes that will be considered for inclusion in a portfolio.  Some people will decide that all they need or want is one broad stock market index fund and one bond fund.  Others will choose to include Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and commodities.  There are well-thought-out arguments that inflation-protected government bonds (TIPS) are a major core asset class.  It is also quite common for investors or advisors to break stocks out into value vs. growth and small cap vs. large cap.  (more…)

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In the first four parts of this article, I have discussed a number of well-known behavioral biases that cause investors to make decisions that are, to put it kindly, less than optimal.  In this final installment, I summarize how best to avoid these costly traps.

As these blog posts have been published over the past couple of weeks, the issues are much in evidence.  Apple (AAPL), long the darling of the market, has lost favor and Groupon (GRPN) seems to be following a relentless downward spiral.  Surely many investors in Groupon must be asking themselves how they could possibly have seen the company as a good bet.  Apple stock, which was trading at $700 in mid-September, is currently at $544, a decline of 22% in two months.  The news that has come out on Apple does not seem sufficient to justify such a broad shift in the market’s consensus as to the long-term value of Apple as a company.  And, of course, we have the poster child of behavioral bias: Facebook (FB).  How is it possible that the market’s consensus view of the share value of such a widely held company could be almost 50% below its first day closing price of $38?  As Warren Buffett is quoted as saying, in the short-term the market is a voting machine and in the long-term the market is a weighing machine.  When voting overwhelms weighing, investor psychology is dominating.

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